Closing Line Value Report — Tuesday, May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Pinnacle priced 19 tennis matches across 7 tournaments. The closing line moved significantly in 1 contest, signalling informed money entering the market. From Rome to the Challenger circuit, here is the complete closing line value summary for the day.
Where Sharp Money Moved the Line
Line movement analysis highlights three markets where Pinnacle adjusted significantly before close. C. Gauff led all movers at 4.0%, with the line travelling from 2.03 to 1.95 in Rome. Match outcome: a win (4-6 6-2 6-4). M. Andreeva recorded 3.6% movement in Rome (1.95 → 1.89), offering +3.6% closing line value to early bettors. Third place went to M. Landaluce in Rome, where the 2.5% shortening signalled uncertainty in the pre-match assessment.
Underdog Wins — Full Breakdown
That day produced 2 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Oeiras 6: E. Vasa beat D. Jorda Sanchis 7-5 6-4 at 2.87. In Rome, M. Landaluce overcame 2.51 odds to defeat H. Medjedovic 7-5 6-4 — a result foreshadowed by significant line movement. These upsets saw little line movement before close — the market did not anticipate these outcomes. In such cases, underdog winners captured outcome value rather than closing line value; the market stayed with the favourite until the match began.
How the Markets Performed
By the numbers: 19 completed markets, 7 active tournaments, 2 upsets (winners priced above 2.0). Favourite win rate: 74%. Average line movement from open to close: 0.3%. The most efficient markets showed less than 1% movement — 16 matches where Pinnacle's opening price was confirmed accurate by the close. The least efficient — 4.0% movement on C. Gauff — suggested the opening price was materially wide of the mark.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.