DubaiHardSemi-finals21 Feb 2026 · 08:10
J. Choinski
#123 · United Kingdom
VS
J. De Jong
#91 · Netherlands
CHOINSKI
2.81
·
JONG
1.46

Odds

Market
Choinski
Jong
Winner
2.81
1.46
Total
line 19.5
1.4
Over 19.5
2.62
Under 19.5
Total
line 20.5
1.67
Over 20.5
2.23
Under 20.5
Handicap
games
2.26
-2.0 games
1.65
+2 games
Handicap
games
2.24
-2.5 games
1.67
+2.5 games

Player analysis

J. Choinski has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -7.5 to 17.2, with at least one match where J. Choinski was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving J. Choinski vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 4.56Trend mixed

J. De Jong comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.5, meaning J. De Jong has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving J. De Jong vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. De Jong has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -28 over recent matches.

DS -6.49Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWLW

3W 2L last 5

6 MarKjaer6-4 7-6L
4 MarSafiullin6-4 5-7 5-7W
3 MarMalige6-7 1-6W
22 FebPerricard4-6 6-3 7-6L
21 FebJong6-1 7-6W
Recent form bar chartLLLWL

1W 4L last 5

21 FebChoinski6-1 7-6L
17 FebRublev4-6 3-6L
11 FebKhachanov3-6 6-4 7-5L
8 FebNagal7-5 1-6 4-6W
7 FebSuresh6-4 7-5L

Hard court stats

Choinski
Stat
Jong
52.6%
Win rate
60%
111–100
W–L
96–64

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved40%
Aces8
Double faults1
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won40%
BP converted20%
BP saved50%
Aces7
Double faults4