A. De Minaur comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.8, meaning A. De Minaur has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. De Minaur has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -13 over recent matches.

J. Rodionov shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 281. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving J. Rodionov vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +11 over the last five.