MiamiHard1/32-finals21 Mar 2026 · 01:25
C. Alcaraz
#1 · Spain
VS
J. Fonseca
#40 · Brazil
ALCARAZ
1.15
·
FONSECA
6.09

Odds

Market
Alcaraz
Fonseca
Winner
1.15
6.09
Total
line 17.5
1.19
Over 17.5
3.8
Under 17.5
Total
line 18.0
1.19
Over 18.0
3.84
Under 18.0
Handicap
games
8.9
-8.5 games
1.04
+8.5 games
Handicap
games
8.4
-8.0 games
1.05
+8 games

Player analysis

C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

DS 6.65Trend up

J. Fonseca has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.8 to 18.5, with at least one match where J. Fonseca was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving J. Fonseca vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 2.43Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Alcaraz
Stat
Fonseca
78%
Win rate
74.3%
156–44
W–L
55–19

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces4
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces8
Double faults2