Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.
J. Fonseca has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.8 to 18.5, with at least one match where J. Fonseca was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving J. Fonseca vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Mar | Medvedev | 3-6 6-7 | L |
| 13 Mar | Norrie | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 11 Mar | Ruud | 6-1 7-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Rinderknech | 6-7 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 8 Mar | Dimitrov | 6-2 6-3 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 19 Mar | Marozsan | 4-6 6-3 2-6 | W |
| 11 Mar | Sinner | 6-7 6-7 | L |
| 9 Mar | Paul | 6-2 6-3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Khachanov | 6-4 6-7 4-6 | W |
| 5 Mar | Collignon | 7-6 6-4 | W |

