MadridClay25 Apr 2026 · 11:00
H. Baptiste
#32 · USA
VS
J. Paolini
#9 · Italy

Odds

Market
Baptiste
Paolini
Change
Winner
Total
line 18.0
1.18
Over 18.0
3.9
Under 18.0
Total
line 18.5
1.28
Over 18.5
3.05
Under 18.5
Handicap
games
2.04
-2.0 games
1.71
+2 games
Handicap
games
1.82
-3.0 games
1.9
+3 games

Player analysis

H. Baptiste comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +1.6 with a downward trend. H. Baptiste is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving H. Baptiste vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 1.65Trend down

J. Paolini has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -16.4 to 20.8, with at least one match where J. Paolini was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving J. Paolini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 0.51Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Baptiste
Stat
Paolini
58.6%
Win rate
59.4%
65–46
W–L
117–80

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved60%
Aces6
Double faults4
1st serve %70%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces3
Double faults2