MiamiHard1/32-finals20 Mar 2026 · 21:30
T. Townsend
#92 · USA
VS
J. Paolini
#8 · Italy
TOWNSEND
2.16
·
PAOLINI
1.77

Odds

Market
Townsend
Paolini
Winner
2.16
1.77
Total
line 18.5
1.26
Over 18.5
3.2
Under 18.5
Total
line 19.0
1.3
Over 19.0
3.04
Under 19.0
Handicap
games
1.85
-2.0 games
2
+2 games
Handicap
games
1.85
-2.5 games
1.96
+2.5 games

Player analysis

T. Townsend has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving T. Townsend vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.

DS 7.38Trend mixed

J. Paolini has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.0 to 8.0, with at least one match where J. Paolini was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving J. Paolini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.

DS 1.37Trend up

Recent form

Hard court stats

Townsend
Stat
Paolini
56.6%
Win rate
54.2%
150–115
W–L
147–124

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces4
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces5
Double faults2

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

01
Clay 01
T. Townsend vs J. Paolini head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
FlorenceClayFinalPaolini6-3 7-5