MadridClayATP Final21 Apr 2026 · 12:30
J. Faria
#136 · Portugal
VS
L. Harris
#155 · South Africa

Odds

Market
Faria
Harris
Change
Winner
Total
line 20.0
1.25
Over 20.0
3.28
Under 20.0
Total
line 20.5
1.34
Over 20.5
2.78
Under 20.5
Handicap
games
4.9
-5.0 games
1.13
+5 games
Handicap
games
3.34
-4.5 games
1.27
+4.5 games

Player analysis

J. Faria has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.2 to 14.3, with at least one match where J. Faria was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving J. Faria vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 2.44Trend mixed

L. Harris comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.8, meaning L. Harris has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving L. Harris vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — L. Harris has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -15 over recent matches.

DS -1.79Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Faria
Stat
Harris
51.8%
Win rate
44.3%
59–55
W–L
35–44

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved50%
Aces7
Double faults7
1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted20%
Aces7
Double faults1
BP saved70%