Closing Line Value Report — Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Covering 8 active tournaments, the March 25, 2026 closing line report tracks 28 completed Pinnacle markets. Sharp signals were present in 21 matches, and 3 results went against the pre-match favourite. Full CLV data, line movements and upset analysis follow below.
Closing Line Value Leaders
Montemar produced the day's most significant line movement: M. Cecchinato opened at 2.14 and closed at 1.85, an 15.4% shift consistent with sharp money entering the market. The match ended in a win for Cecchinato (6-2 6-1). Elsewhere, J. Pegula in Miami showed a 15.2% Pinnacle move (2.40 → 2.83), costing early bettors that amount in CLV. In a separate Challenger match in Montemar, L. Harris faced M. Cecchinato and registered the third largest line move of the day at 14.5%.
Where the Favourites Failed
March 25 produced 3 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Morelia: J. P. Ficovich beat S. Mochizuki 6-7 6-4 6-1 at 2.71. In Naples, F. Bondioli overcame 3.02 odds to defeat S. Nagal 6-2 4-6 7-5. These upsets saw little line movement before close — the market did not anticipate these outcomes. In such cases, underdog winners captured outcome value rather than closing line value; the market stayed with the favourite until the match started.
End of Day: CLV Totals
By close, 28 Pinnacle tennis markets had settled. Statistical highlights: 71% favourites successful, 3 underdogs prevailed, 2 markets saw zero line movement from open to close — roughly 7% of the day's markets. The zero-movement matches typically involve heavy favourites (odds below 1.10) where Pinnacle's confidence is high and sharp money finds no edge to exploit.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs market column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at minus closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced at match time.