MiamiHardWTA Quarter-finals25 Mar 2026 · 18:10
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
VS
J. Pegula
#5 · USA
RYBAKINA
1.472
·
PEGULA
2.83

Odds

Market
Rybakina
Pegula
Winner
1.472
2.83
Total
line 21.5
1.62
Over 21.5
2.2
Under 21.5
Total
line 22.5
1.96
Over 22.5
1.93
Under 22.5
Handicap
games
1.704
+3.5 games
2.19
-3.5 games
Handicap
games
1.73
-2.5 games
2
+2.5 games

Player analysis

E. Rybakina shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+30) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.

DS 5.73Trend mixed

J. Pegula arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-40 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 8.81Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Rybakina
Stat
Pegula
68.8%
Win rate
66.4%
207–94
W–L
290–147

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved80%
Aces7
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved60%
Aces3
Double faults1

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

53
Hard 42
Indoor 11
E. Rybakina vs J. Pegula head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
WTA Indian WellsHardQuarter-finalsRybakina1-6 6-7
WTA Australian OpenHardAustralian Open - Semi-finalsRybakina3-6 6-7
Finals - RiyadhIndoorSemi-finalsRybakina6-4 4-6 3-6
WTA Billie Jean King Cup - World GroupHardRybakina6-4 6-1
WTA Finals - CancunIndoorPegula5-7 2-6
WTA MiamiHardSemi-finalsRybakina7-6 6-4
Guadalajara 2Hard1/16-finalsPegula2-6 6-3 7-6
MiamiHard1/16-finalsPegula6-3 6-4