Hailey Baptiste, ranked 32nd and representing the USA, reaches the Madrid semi-finals on clay after an impressive run through the draw. The American has shown strong form in Madrid, defeating Jasmine Paolini in straight sets and recovering from a loss to Irina Shymanovich to beat both Belinda Bencic and Aryna Sabalenka in three-set contests. Baptiste holds a 1–0 head-to-head record against her opponent and faces world number 8 Mirra Andreeva as an underdog at 3.05 decimal odds on the clay court.

Mirra Andreeva, ranked 8th in the world, is the heavy favourite at 1.32 decimal odds in this Madrid clay semi-final against Hailey Baptiste. The world number 8 arrives in strong form, posting wins against Daria Galfi, Petra Udvardy, and Anett Bondar, though she suffered a straight-set loss to Elena Rybakina in her previous outing. Andreeva's seeding and current ranking reflect her status as the clear favourite, despite Baptiste's head-to-head advantage of 1–0 in their matchup.