M. Arnaldi comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.2, meaning M. Arnaldi has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.

N. Borges has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -16.4 to 11.6, with at least one match where N. Borges was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving N. Borges vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.