C. Garin has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +2.9 with a downward trend. C. Garin is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving C. Garin vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Garin has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.

M. Arnaldi comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -7.7, meaning M. Arnaldi has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.3/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.