CagliariClaySemi-finals2 May 2026 · 13:00
M. Arnaldi
#103 · Italy
VS
G. Cadenasso
#232 · Italy
ARNALDI
1.667
1.645
·
CADENASSO
2.35

Odds

Market
Arnaldi
Cadenasso
Change
Winner
1.667
2.35
0.02
Total
line 22.0
1.87
Over 22.0
1.79
Under 22.0
Total
line 22.5
1.98
Over 22.5
1.7
Under 22.5
Handicap
games
1.84
-2.5 games
1.82
+2.5 games
Handicap
games
2.14
-3.5 games
1.62
+3.5 games

Player analysis

Matteo Arnaldi enters the Cagliari semi-finals as the higher-ranked player at world No. 103, seeking to build on a mixed recent record that includes wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Franco Arnaboldi. The Italian clay-courter has struggled against top opposition lately, losing to Dušan Lajović, Quentin Halys and Cameron Garin in his last five matches. Arnaldi holds no head-to-head history against Gabriele Cadenasso and faces Pinnacle odds of 1.67 as the favourite in this all-Italian semi-final clash on home soil.

DS 1.95Trend mixed

Gabriele Cadenasso, ranked 232nd globally, qualified for the Cagliari semi-finals with recent wins against Matteo Bellucci and Lorenzo Carboni on clay. The Italian player's form remains inconsistent, having also suffered losses to Jelle Vasami and Hugo Gaston in his last five outings. This marks Cadenasso's first head-to-head meeting with Arnaldi, and he enters as the underdog at Pinnacle odds of 2.31 in a semi-final matchup against a significantly higher-ranked opponent.

DS 8.07Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Arnaldi
Stat
Cadenasso
63.4%
Win rate
64%
116–67
W–L
89–50

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved60%
Aces4
Double faults4
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces3
Double faults4