M. Arnaldi comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.4, meaning M. Arnaldi has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.

A. Zverev shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +10.2 (range: -14.9 to 26.9). Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Zverev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -23 over recent matches.