F. Auger-Aliassime comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.8, meaning F. Auger-Aliassime has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving F. Auger-Aliassime vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — F. Auger-Aliassime has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.

A. Rublev shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 48. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.4 to 11.3, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +15 over the last five.