L. Sonego has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -11.3 to 22.6, with at least one match where L. Sonego was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving L. Sonego vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — L. Sonego has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -19 over recent matches.

A. Rublev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.0, meaning A. Rublev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.