Australian OpenHardSemi-finals14 Jan 2026 · 00:05
R. Carballes Baena
#165 · Spain
VS
G. A. Bailly
#212 · Belgium

Odds

Market
Baena
Bailly
Winner

Player analysis

R. Carballes Baena comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -13.7 to 25.5, with at least one match where R. Carballes Baena was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — R. Carballes Baena has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -47 over recent matches.

DS 4.42Trend mixed

G. A. Bailly comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.7, meaning G. A. Bailly has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving G. A. Bailly vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +15 over the last five.

DS -5.74Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLLLWW

2W 3L last 5

10 MarVasa4-6 6-3 6-7L
3 MarKopp3-6 2-6L
17 FebZhang6-4 6-4L
15 FebMochizuki0-6 3-6W
14 FebMiedler6-3 6-1W
Recent form bar chartLLLWL

1W 4L last 5

10 MarGhibaudo6-3 3-6 6-3L
4 MarHerbert6-3 6-7 6-3L
28 JanSakellaridis3-6 2-6L
27 JanMatsuoka6-1 6-3W
20 JanRehberg6-3 1-6 4-6L

Hard court stats

Baena
Stat
Bailly
41.7%
Win rate
56.1%
68–95
W–L
88–69

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted20%
BP saved30%
Aces5
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved60%
Aces2
Double faults3