M. McDonald has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -20.3 to 29.4, with at least one match where M. McDonald was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. McDonald vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.

R. Carballes Baena comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -13.7 to 25.5, with at least one match where R. Carballes Baena was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — R. Carballes Baena has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -47 over recent matches.