T. Fritz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.3. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.9/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

S. Baez comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.5, meaning S. Baez has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving S. Baez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.