P. Carreno-Busta has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.8, meaning P. Carreno-Busta has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving P. Carreno-Busta vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — P. Carreno-Busta has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.

D. Shapovalov comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -8.9, meaning D. Shapovalov has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving D. Shapovalov vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.