J. Fonseca has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.8 to 18.5, with at least one match where J. Fonseca was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving J. Fonseca vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

D. Shapovalov comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -7.8, meaning D. Shapovalov has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving D. Shapovalov vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Shapovalov has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -18 over recent matches.