A. Rublev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.8. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

G. Monfils comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -19.3 to 16.4, with at least one match where G. Monfils was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving G. Monfils vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — G. Monfils has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -16 over recent matches.