Closing Line Value Report — Friday, March 20, 2026
Covering 5 active tournaments, the March 20, 2026 closing line report tracks 43 completed Pinnacle markets. Sharp signals were present in 30 matches, and 9 results went against the pre-match favourite. Full CLV data, line movements and upset analysis follow below.
Closing Line Value Leaders
Miami produced the day's most significant line movement: E. Kalieva opened at 4.66 and closed at 5.67, an 17.8% shift as the market drifted away from this player. The match ended in a loss (2-6 0-6). Elsewhere, E. Cocciaretto in Miami showed an 17.8% Pinnacle move (5.77 → 4.90), giving early bettors +17.8% closing line value — the same percentage as the Kalieva drift above, though the two moves are unrelated. C. Osorio versus K. Muchova at the Miami Open registered the third largest move of the day at 15.2%.
Where the Favourites Failed
Upsets were a theme, with 9 lower-ranked or higher-priced players advancing. F. Roncadelli in Asuncion was the most significant, beating D. Vallejo at 6.93. The result was not foreshadowed by line movement — Pinnacle moved F. Roncadelli's line only -5.1% before close. L. Midon in Asuncion also produced a surprise at 2.68, defeating J. Faria 7-6 3-6 6-3. Combined, these upsets resulted in 9 Pinnacle favourites failing to prevail, underscoring that even sharp markets express probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes.
End of Day: CLV Totals
By close, 43 Pinnacle tennis markets had settled. Statistical highlights: 58% favourites successful, 9 underdogs prevailed, 1 market (2%) saw zero line movement from open to close. The zero-movement matches typically involve heavy favourites (odds below 1.10) where Pinnacle's confidence is high and sharp money finds no edge to exploit.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices as recorded at match start.