Closing Line Value Report — Sunday, March 22, 2026
The CLV tracker recorded 80 completed matches on March 22, 2026, covering 11 events including Asuncion. Pinnacle markets opened and closed with 55 notable moves, reflecting where sharp bettors placed their money ahead of the closing line. This page documents every result and line shift for the day.
Top Closing Line Value Shifts
The clearest sharp move was on F. Bass in Split. Opening at 6.79 and closing at 5.53, the odds shortened by 22.8% — the day's largest Pinnacle move. This indicates sharp money backed F. Bass at the open price of 6.79; bettors who did so captured a CLV of 22.8% as the market moved in their favour before close. Result: a loss (2-6 5-7). The day's second-biggest move came from Naples, where L. Rottoli shifted 22.4% (2.39 → 1.95) — a strong CLV signal of +22.4% for those who backed early. Rounding out the top three, H. Barton in Naples moved 22.2% from open, finishing at 1.60.
Against the Odds: Upset Report
Upsets were a theme, with 15 lower-ranked or higher-priced players advancing. F. Roncadelli in Asuncion was the most significant, beating J. P. Varillas at 2.64. The result was not foreshadowed by line movement — Pinnacle moved F. Roncadelli's line only -4.3% before close. S. Korda in Miami also produced a surprise at 6.48, defeating C. Alcaraz 6-3 5-7 6-4. Combined, these upsets resulted in 15 Pinnacle favourites beaten as favourites, underscoring that even sharp markets are expressed as probabilities, not certainties.
ATP/WTA Final: Line Movement Analysis
The headline match was the Asuncion final between F. Roncadelli and G. Cadenasso. Pinnacle opened F. Roncadelli at 2.74 and G. Cadenasso at 1.50. By the time markets closed, G. Cadenasso had moved to 1.42 — a 5.4% shortening from open — while the runner-up closed at 3.06. G. Cadenasso claimed the title with a score of 7-6 6-0. The closing line movement toward G. Cadenasso before the final suggests the market had information that the eventual champion was underpriced at open. Bettors who backed G. Cadenasso at open captured positive CLV (5.4%) as the market confirmed their edge.
Closing Line Value Statistics
Closing line value data: 80 matches tracked, 71% favourite win rate, 5.6% average Pinnacle line move. 35 of 80 matches saw the opening favourite's odds shorten before close — a sign of sustained market confidence. The largest single move was 22.8% on F. Bass in Split. The vs mkt column (which compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers) showed the widest gap on S. Motoyama in Yokkaichi, where Pinnacle and the average bookmaker differed by +588.4% — an unusually large divergence that likely reflects a data artefact or an exceptionally illiquid market rather than a genuine pricing gap.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% on this page measures the percentage change in Pinnacle's odds from open to close: ((opening odds − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. This shows how much the line moved, and what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. Note that this is a measure of line movement rather than a true CLV calculation against your specific stake price — true CLV would compare your actual bet price to the closing line. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.
