Odds
Player analysis
N. Basilashvili has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.2, meaning N. Basilashvili has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving N. Basilashvili vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+34) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
D. Merida Aguilar shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 89. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -16.8 to 10.1, with at least one match where D. Merida Aguilar was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving D. Merida Aguilar vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Merida Aguilar has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -13 over recent matches.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 5 May | Hijikata | 3-6 2-6 | W |
| 4 May | Moller | 6-4 2-6 6-7 | W |
| 28 Apr | Kopp | 3-6 4-6 | L |
| 22 Apr | Ofner | 6-7 6-7 | L |
| 21 Apr | Kypson | 7-6 6-7 4-6 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 5 May | Vera | 6-3 3-6 7-6 | W |
| 4 May | McDonald | 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 27 Apr | Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-2 | L |
| 25 Apr | Moutet | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 23 Apr | Trungelliti | 4-6 6-1 6-7 | W |

