S. Tsitsipas comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.6, meaning S. Tsitsipas has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving S. Tsitsipas vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — S. Tsitsipas has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -11 over recent matches.

D. Merida Aguilar shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 77. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.5 to 9.9, with at least one match where D. Merida Aguilar was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving D. Merida Aguilar vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.