E. Alexandrova comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.6, meaning E. Alexandrova has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving E. Alexandrova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Alexandrova has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -27 over recent matches.

D. Kasatkina has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.2. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving D. Kasatkina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.