J. Pegula arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-40 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

E. Alexandrova comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.6, meaning E. Alexandrova has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving E. Alexandrova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Alexandrova has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -27 over recent matches.