E. Alexandrova comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.2, meaning E. Alexandrova has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving E. Alexandrova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Alexandrova has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -15 over recent matches.

J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 34. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -18.6 to 22.1, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.