Odds
Player analysis
M. Arnaldi comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -8.5, meaning M. Arnaldi has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.3/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.
L. Sonego comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.1, meaning L. Sonego has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving L. Sonego vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — L. Sonego has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -21 over recent matches.
Recent form
1W 4L last 5
| 11 Apr | Halys | 1-6 7-6 6-7 | L |
| 6 Apr | Garin | 6-2 6-4 | L |
| 5 Apr | Muller | 1-6 7-6 4-6 | L |
| 4 Apr | Kopriva | 6-2 3-6 2-6 | W |
| 31 Mar | Molcan | 6-3 6-1 | L |
2W 3L last 5
| 22 Jan | Musetti | 6-3 6-3 6-4 | L |
| 20 Jan | Taberner | 6-4 6-0 6-3 | W |
| 8 Jan | Shang | 3-6 4-6 | L |
| 6 Jan | Sakamoto | 6-2 7-6 | W |
| 7 Nov | Norrie | 4-6 6-2 6-4 | L |

