P. Badosa has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +1.6 with a downward trend. P. Badosa is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving P. Badosa vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

V. Kudermetova comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -13.5 to 21.9, with at least one match where V. Kudermetova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving V. Kudermetova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — V. Kudermetova has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -15 over recent matches.