S. Baez comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.5, meaning S. Baez has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving S. Baez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.

P. Carreno-Busta shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 272. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.5, meaning P. Carreno-Busta has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving P. Carreno-Busta vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.