A. De Minaur has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.2, meaning A. De Minaur has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +18 over the last five.

M. Berrettini comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -24.2 to 49.3, with at least one match where M. Berrettini was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving M. Berrettini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.