D. Medvedev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -7.6 to 18.5, with at least one match where D. Medvedev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+44) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.

M. Berrettini comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.1, meaning M. Berrettini has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.