Hong KongHardQuarter-finals9 Jan 2026 · 08:20
A. Rublev
#15 · Russia
VS
N. Borges
#50 · Portugal
RUBLEV
1.53
·
BORGES
2.71

Odds

Market
Rublev
Borges
Winner
1.53
2.71
Total
line 18.5
1.19
Over 18.5
3.99
Under 18.5
Total
line 19.5
1.25
Over 19.5
3.42
Under 19.5
Handicap
games
7
-6.0 games
1.07
+6 games
Handicap
games
5.86
-5.5 games
1.14
+5.5 games

Player analysis

A. Rublev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -2.1 to 17.1, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Rublev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

DS 3.38Trend up

N. Borges comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.2, meaning N. Borges has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving N. Borges vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS -5.15Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Rublev
Stat
Borges
62.8%
Win rate
63%
311–184
W–L
121–71

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces10
Double faults3
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces6
Double faults2

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

40
Clay 10
Hard 20
Indoor 10
A. Rublev vs N. Borges head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
Monte CarloClayATP 1/32-finalsRublev6-4 1-6 6-1
Hong KongHardQuarter-finalsRublev6-3 6-4
DohaHard1/8-finalsRublev6-3 6-4
ATP BaselIndoor1/16-finalsRublev6-3 6-2