J. Pegula arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-40 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

K. Boulter comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -12.9 to 16.9, with at least one match where K. Boulter was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving K. Boulter vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — K. Boulter has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.