A. Kalinskaya comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.2, meaning A. Kalinskaya has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving A. Kalinskaya vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +15 over the last five.

J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 34. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -18.6 to 22.1, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.