AdelaideHardSemi-finals16 Jan 2026 · 03:40
T. Machac
#41 · Czech Republic
VS
T. Paul
#18 · USA
MACHAC
2.44
·
PAUL
1.63

Odds

Market
Machac
Paul
Winner
2.44
1.63
Total
line 19.5
1.25
Over 19.5
3.28
Under 19.5
Total
line 20.0
1.29
Over 20.0
3.08
Under 20.0
Handicap
games
1.99
-2.0 games
1.9
+2 games
Handicap
games
1.88
-2.5 games
2
+2.5 games

Player analysis

T. Machac comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.8, meaning T. Machac has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving T. Machac vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — T. Machac has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -11 over recent matches.

DS -2.78Trend mixed

T. Paul shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 55. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.8 to 13.8, with at least one match where T. Paul was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving T. Paul vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 2.34Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Machac
Stat
Paul
64.7%
Win rate
62.2%
154–84
W–L
248–151

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces3
Double faults4
1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved60%
Aces5
Double faults2

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

31
Hard 30
Clay 01
T. Machac vs T. Paul head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
AdelaideHardSemi-finalsMachac2-6 6-3 6-3
RomeClay1/16-finalsPaul6-3 6-7 6-4
ATP ShanghaiHard1/8-finalsMachac6-3 4-6 3-6
ATP TokyoHardTokyo - 1/8-finalsMachac6-2 3-6 6-7