Odds
Player analysis
A. De Minaur comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.6, meaning A. De Minaur has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. De Minaur has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -13 over recent matches.
L. Musetti has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.1 to 17.6, with at least one match where L. Musetti was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving L. Musetti vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
2W 3L last 5
| 21 Mar | Tsitsipas | 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 9 Mar | Norrie | 6-4 6-4 | L |
| 8 Mar | Korda | 6-4 4-6 4-6 | W |
| 24 Feb | Kypson | 6-1 6-7 7-6 | L |
| 15 Feb | Auger-Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 6 Mar | Fucsovics | 5-7 1-6 | L |
| 26 Jan | Fritz | 6-2 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 24 Jan | Machac | 5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 | W |
| 22 Jan | Sonego | 6-3 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 11 Jan | Bublik | 6-7 3-6 | L |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Turin | Indoor | Musetti | 7-5 3-6 7-5 | ||
| Madrid | Clay | 1/8-finals | Musetti | 4-6 2-6 | |
| Monte Carlo | Clay | Semi-finals | Musetti | 1-6 6-4 7-6 | |
| ATP London | Grass | 1/16-finals | Musetti | 1-6 6-4 6-2 | |
| Australian Open | Hard | 1/64-finals | Minaur | 6-3 3-6 3-6 |