Odds
Player analysis
E. Rybakina comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 17 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.
I. Swiatek has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.8 to 29.8, with at least one match where I. Swiatek was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving I. Swiatek vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 15 Mar | Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 14 Mar | Svitolina | 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 13 Mar | Pegula | 1-6 6-7 | W |
| 10 Mar | Kostyuk | 4-6 4-6 | W |
| 7 Mar | Baptiste | 6-7 6-2 2-6 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 12 Mar | Svitolina | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | L |
| 11 Mar | Muchova | 2-6 0-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Sakkari | 3-6 2-6 | W |
| 7 Mar | Day | 0-6 6-7 | W |
| 12 Feb | Sakkari | 6-2 4-6 5-7 | L |
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA Australian Open | Hard | Quarter-finals | Rybakina | 7-5 6-1 | |
| Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Rybakina | 6-3 1-6 0-6 | ||
| Cincinnati | Hard | Semi-finals | Swiatek | 5-7 3-6 | |
| French Open | Clay | 1/8-finals | Swiatek | 6-1 3-6 5-7 | |
| Doha | Hard | Quarter-finals | Swiatek | 2-6 5-7 | |
| United Cup | Hard | Swiatek | 6-7 4-6 | ||
| WTA Stuttgart | Clay | Semi-finals | Rybakina | 3-6 6-4 3-6 | |
| WTA Doha | Hard | Final | Swiatek | 7-6 6-2 |

