MiamiHardATP Quarter-finals26 Mar 2026 · 18:10
F. Tiafoe
#20 · USA
VS
J. Sinner
#2 · Italy
TIAFOE
14.41
·
SINNER
1.05

Odds

Market
Tiafoe
Sinner
Winner
14.41
1.05
Total
line 19.5
1.96
Over 19.5
1.82
Under 19.5
Total
line 20.5
2.4
Over 20.5
1.56
Under 20.5
Handicap
games
1.62
+6.5 games
2.2
-6.5 games
Handicap
games
1.83
+5.5 games
1.83
-5.5 games

Player analysis

F. Tiafoe has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.1, meaning F. Tiafoe has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving F. Tiafoe vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +23 over the last five.

DS -5.14Trend mixed

J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-20 opposition. Serve quality has been average (7.0/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +18 over the last five.

DS 13.62Trend mixed

Recent form

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces6
Double faults1
1st serve %70%
1st serve won90%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved90%
Aces12
Double faults0

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

12
Hard 01
Indoor 11
F. Tiafoe vs J. Sinner head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
ATP CincinnatiHardFinalSinner7-6 6-2
ATP ViennaIndoorQuarter-finalsSinner3-6 4-6
ViennaIndoorSemi-finalsTiafoe3-6 7-5 6-2