ATP Indian WellsHardIndian Wells - Final15 Mar 2026 · 22:25
D. Medvedev
#10 · Russia
VS
J. Sinner
#1 · Italy
MEDVEDEV
4.33
·
SINNER
1.25

Odds

Market
Medvedev
Sinner
Winner
4.33
1.25
Total
line 17.5
1.12
Over 17.5
4.85
Under 17.5
Total
line 18.0
1.14
Over 18.0
4.7
Under 18.0
Handicap
games
3.14
-2.0 games
1.35
+2 games
Handicap
games
2.78
-2.5 games
1.43
+2.5 games

Player analysis

D. Medvedev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -7.9, meaning D. Medvedev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.7/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS -7.89Trend mixed

J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five. Serve quality has been average (7.0/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 15.02Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Medvedev
Stat
Sinner
72.6%
Win rate
80.5%
378–143
W–L
248–60

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces5
Double faults4
1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won70%
BP converted50%
BP saved50%
Aces4
Double faults1

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

18
Hard 05
Indoor 03
Grass 10
D. Medvedev vs J. Sinner head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
ATP Indian WellsHardIndian Wells - FinalSinner6-7 6-7
ATP Finals - TurinIndoorSinner6-3 6-4
ATP ShanghaiHardQuarter-finalsSinner6-1 6-4
ATP US OpenHardQuarter-finalsSinner6-2 1-6 6-1 6-4
ATP WimbledonGrassQuarter-finalsMedvedev7-6 4-6 6-7 6-2 3-6
ATP MiamiHardSemi-finalsSinner1-6 2-6
ATP Australian OpenHardFinalSinner3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3
ATP Finals - TurinIndoorSemi-finalsSinner6-3 6-7 6-1
ATP ViennaIndoorFinalSinner6-7 6-4 3-6