Closing Line Value Report — Friday, March 27, 2026
The CLV tracker recorded 31 completed matches on March 27, 2026, covering 8 events including Miami. Pinnacle markets opened and closed with 19 notable moves, reflecting where sharp bettors placed their money ahead of the closing line. This page documents every result and line shift for the day.
Top Closing Line Value Shifts
Sharp money was most visible on V. Erjavec in Dubrovnik. Opening at 1.76 and closing at 2.22, the 20.8% Pinnacle move was the day's largest. The odds drifted significantly, indicating the market moved away from Erjavec rather than toward him. Result: a loss (6-7 3-6). The day's second-biggest move came from Montemar, where M. Houkes shifted 19.6% (3.20 → 3.98) — a negative CLV of -19.6% for those who backed early, meaning the odds drifted and early backers received a worse price than the closing line. Rounding out the top three, M. Cecchinato in Montemar moved 15.7% from open, finishing at 2.99.
Against the Odds: Upset Report
That day produced 3 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Naples: V. Sachko beat F. Cina 6-2 4-6 6-1 at 2.61. In Yokkaichi, H. Matsuoka overcame 6.17 odds to defeat S. Kwon 4-6 6-2 [score unverified]. These upsets saw little line movement before close — the market did not anticipate these outcomes. In such cases, underdog winners captured profit from the result itself rather than from beating the closing line.
Tournament Final Recap
The most significant matches came at the semi-final stage of Miami. In the women's draw, A. Sabalenka defeated E. Rybakina 6-4 6-3, with Pinnacle moving A. Sabalenka's line 0.0% before close — minimal line movement suggesting stable market confidence. In the men's draw semi-final, J. Lehecka overcame A. Fils 6-2 6-2 (2.40 → 2.39). These results set up the women's final featuring A. Sabalenka and the men's final featuring J. Lehecka.
Closing Line Value Statistics
Closing line value data: 31 matches tracked, 65% favourite win rate, 3.9% average Pinnacle line move. 12 of 31 matches saw the opening favourite's odds shorten before close — a sign of sustained market confidence. The largest single move was 20.8% on V. Erjavec in Dubrovnik. The vs mkt column showed the widest gap for A. Vasilev (Split), where Pinnacle and the average bookmaker differed by +18.4%.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at minus closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted and the closing line was longer than where you backed. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices.