Closing Line Value Report — Tuesday, March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 brought 74 tennis matches to the Pinnacle closing line tracker, spanning 8 tournaments across hard and clay courts. Sharp money was active throughout the day, with 51 matches showing meaningful line movement before close. Below is a full breakdown of closing line value results, notable upsets, and market behaviour for the day.
Biggest CLV Movers
Three matches stood out for Pinnacle line movement. V. Gaubas in Bucharest saw the biggest shift at 23.4%, opening at 3.38 before closing at 4.41. The outcome — a loss (3-6 1-6) — confirmed the market's directional accuracy. D. Merida Aguilar was the second-biggest mover, with a 22.9% change in Bucharest (1.74 → 1.41) — bettors who anticipated this move captured +22.9% CLV. The third mover, M. McDonald, drifted 20.9% in Houston against J. Brooksby.
Upsets and Surprise Results
The day produced 7 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Bucharest: A. Shevchenko beat R. D. Turcanu 6-2 6-4 at odds of 6.7. In Houston, M. McDonald overcame odds of 2.72 to defeat J. Brooksby 6-4 6-2 — a result foreshadowed by significant line movement. These upsets saw little line movement before close, meaning the market did not anticipate these outcomes. In such cases, underdog winners captured outcome value rather than closing line value; the market remained with the favourite right up until the match began.
Tournament Final Recap
The headline match was the Bucharest final between D. Merida Aguilar and J. J. Schwaerzler. Pinnacle opened D. Merida Aguilar at 1.40 and J. J. Schwaerzler at 3.05. By the time markets closed, D. Merida Aguilar had moved to 1.40 — a 0.0% shift — while the runner-up also closed at 3.05. D. Merida Aguilar claimed the title with a score of 6-2 6-2. The market opened and closed at near-identical prices for the eventual champion. Bettors who backed D. Merida Aguilar at open saw minimal CLV movement — the market was stable from open to close.
CLV Summary — By the Numbers
Across all 74 matches, 74% of Pinnacle favourites won, average absolute line movement was 5.0%, and 41 matches offered positive CLV to the favourite backer. The Challenger circuit accounted for 45% of the day's volume. Surface breakdown: 9 hard court matches, 65 clay, 0 grass.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you secured a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and represents the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured by betting at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have secured a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.
