C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

S. Baez comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.0, meaning S. Baez has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving S. Baez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.