US OpenHard1/32-finals28 Aug 2025 · 01:25
M. Bellucci
#79 · Italy
VS
C. Alcaraz
#1 · Spain
BELLUCCI
21.04
·
ALCARAZ
1.03

Odds

Market
Bellucci
Alcaraz
Winner
21.04
1.03
Total
line 26.5
1.29
Over 26.5
3.1
Under 26.5
Total
line 27.0
1.34
Over 27.0
2.89
Under 27.0
Handicap
games
7.3
-3.5 games
1.06
+3.5 games
Handicap
games
5.5
-4.5 games
1.13
+4.5 games

Player analysis

M. Bellucci has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.9, meaning M. Bellucci has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving M. Bellucci vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS -2.94Trend up

C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

DS 6.65Trend up

Recent form

Hard court stats

Bellucci
Stat
Alcaraz
60.2%
Win rate
78%
150–99
W–L
156–44

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won40%
BP saved60%
Aces4
Double faults4
BP converted30%
1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces4
Double faults2