TokyoHard1/8-finals27 Sep 2025 · 10:40
C. Alcaraz
#1 · Spain
VS
Z. Bergs
#47 · Belgium
ALCARAZ
1.03
·
BERGS
15

Odds

Market
Alcaraz
Bergs
Winner
1.03
15
Total
line 15.0
1.05
Over 15.0
7.2
Under 15.0
Total
line 15.5
1.08
Over 15.5
5.86
Under 15.5
Handicap
games
8.95
-9.0 games
1.02
+9 games
Handicap
games
5.57
-8.5 games
1.1
+8.5 games

Player analysis

C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

DS 6.65Trend up

Z. Bergs has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.1, meaning Z. Bergs has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving Z. Bergs vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — Z. Bergs has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -27 over recent matches.

DS -0.13Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Alcaraz
Stat
Bergs
78%
Win rate
44.4%
156–44
W–L
16–20

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces4
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted30%
BP saved40%
Aces6
Double faults5