C. Alcaraz shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 35. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.3 to 21.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving C. Alcaraz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

A. De Minaur comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.4, meaning A. De Minaur has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.