A. Zverev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +0.6 with a downward trend. A. Zverev is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving A. Zverev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Zverev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.

C. Alcaraz shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 35. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.3 to 21.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving C. Alcaraz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.