M. Arnaldi comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.4, meaning M. Arnaldi has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.

A. Rublev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -14.0 to 11.3, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.